Loren Lippincott
When I was growing up on the farm, I remember learning to drive a Ford tractor and raking hay starting at age 10. I loved those years and that’s why I returned to that farm after my flying career. Before I left for college, I remember many times following a long day of physical work when my father would say, “I don’t know what I will do without you!” It often caused me to question whether I should leave home or stay and work with my dad.
Today many small shops in our towns are closing because they cannot find reliable help to keep the doors open. There are fewer youngsters to fill positions and loyalty seems to be a vanishing quality in our society.
The first part of the problem is seasonal and the second is cultural and generational. Every year as summer ends, something predictable happens in the job market when students who have worked summer jobs pack up and return to school. At the same time, not enough children are being born to keep the population steady. Together, these two trends are making the workforce smaller and tighter than it used to be.
First, consider the seasonal effect of students going back to class. During the summer months, high school and college students often fill roles in retail, restaurants, tourism and other service-related industries. These temporary workers help businesses handle the busy season, but when school starts again in August, those young workers leave, creating a hole not easily filled. Employers suddenly face the prospect of empty shifts and tougher schedules. While not a permanent situation, it creates short-term pressure. Businesses may cut operating hours or ask remaining staff to do more. Customers sometimes experience longer waits or reduced services during this transition period.
The bigger and more serious problem is the long-term decline in population growth. Zero population growth (ZPG) means the number of births equals the number of deaths, keeping the total population stable. But when the average woman has fewer than 2.11 children over her lifetime, the population eventually starts to shrink.
Today Nebraska’s birth rate is 1.92 and nationally our birth rate is 1.56. At that rate, after three generations, the population is reduced by over half. Many developed countries have been below this level for years. Fewer babies today means fewer teenagers and young adults entering the job market 15 to 20 years later.
Every college president in Nebraska will tell you that student populations peaked in 2023 and are now in decline! And while the working-age population declines, people are living longer, so the percentage of older adults is increasing. This creates a double squeeze: fewer young workers coming in while more people retire and also need support. The manufacturing, healthcare, construction and technology industries already report trouble finding enough qualified staff, causing some to raise pay or offer better benefits to attract workers. Others turn to automation or try to “poach” workers from other countries. Still, the underlying shortage remains.
These two forces — the seasonal exit of students and the deeper demographic shift — make labor markets tighter than they would otherwise be. In the short run, the back-to-school effect shows up every fall in employment reports, but in the long run, low birth rates reshape entire economies. Tax bases may shrink relative to the cost of pensions and healthcare and economic growth slows because there are simply fewer people producing goods and services.
The solutions are not simple. Some places encourage higher birth rates through family support such as childcare help or parental leave. Others expand immigration or invest heavily in training and technology to get more output from fewer workers. Businesses can also adapt by becoming more flexible with scheduling and by treating the remaining workforce better so employees stay longer.
But with this pressure on the workforce coming from both directions and continuing for the foreseeable future, many industries and, indeed, the entire economy face formidable and growing challenges that will likely continue until societies find better ways to balance the number of workers with the needs of the economy.
“Supporting myself at an early age was the best training for life I could have possibly received.” Lea Thompson
Loren Lippincott represents Legislative District 34 in the Nebraska State Senate. Read his column in the Nance County Journal.